The Fourth Turning Is Here

Book Author: Neil Howe

Over the past decade, you may have thought that the world is in crisis and everything is unraveling. Or you may have realized the distinction between each of the main generations or even yourself said, “Ok, Boomer.”

Many people are frightened about the state of affairs. War, poverty, democracy under threat, economic chaos, and social unrest are all big threats. 

In The Fourth Turning Is Here, Neil Howe’s followup to his 1997 Book, The Fourth Turning (with William Strauss), Howe puts all of the current state of affairs into a historical and demographic context. Howe argues that the current state of affairs is expected because it is following a historical pattern. 

The book’s central thesis is that Anglo-American history moves in a roughly 100-year supercycle. Within that cycle, there are four subcycles or “turnings.” Each of these subcycles is roughly 25 years long and spans a generation. As history progresses, towards the end of each subcycle (roughly every 25 years) is a turning point. Each generation faces that turning point from the perspective of their age, upbringing, and their place in the historical cycle. 

The first turning point is a high or a period of confidence and prosperity following the end of a crisis. The second turning is an Awakening, a time of experimentation, counterculture, and rebellion. The third turning point is defined by an unraveling where institutions are challenged, and society focuses on the self and tribes; the fourth turning is marked by a significant crisis and societal upheaval. 

In case you were wondering, we have entered the “Fourth Turning.” 

During the current supercycle, the four generations are the Boomers, GenX, Millennials (a term Howe coined about 30 years ago), and GenZ (which Howe refers to as the Homeland generation). 

Howe spends the first portion of the book reviewing the supercycle thesis (saving you the trouble of having to read the previous book) and explaining the previous supercycles and their crisis (he goes back to the War of the Roses in the 1400s and works up to the Great Depression/WWII, the last fourth turning), how they were resolved and how the cycle started over again. 

Howe argues that the cycle keeps repeating itself due to the nature of how each generation was brought up. The generation that solves the crisis typically wants stability and structures society, businesses,  and their children’s upbringing on that notion. In contrast, the next generation that did not sacrifice during the crisis starts to rebel against the new order, starting the cycle over again. Comparable to the children of the GI Generation, the Boomers did not grow up under crisis and started to question why these structures were in place and rebel against them (i.e., the “Hippy/Counterculture” movement of the 1960s.) 

Howe then spends the rest of the book mapping out his thesis to the current environment. He draws on both historical precedent and current demographics/technology to come to his conclusions. 

The book argues that the crisis period started during the 2008 Financial Crisis and will continue until about the end of the decade. While the book does not try to predict the mechanics of how this crisis will play out, it uses the existing framework to predict how it will be handled. In broad strokes, the GenX cohort will be mainly in leadership positions and work with the Millennial generation to solve it. (If the crisis is a major war, for example, GenX will be the Generals and the Millenials, the enlisted soldiers doing the fighting.) Most of the division and tribal nature of society today will transition to a more prosperous and stable 2030s. 

Why I recommend this book

While a book on history and demographics is not always on the top of everyone’s reading list, Howe lays out a compelling case for a major crisis happening in the next five to seven years. 

More importantly, Howe outlines how a major crisis will affect the economy. The investment climate will face major challenges later in the decade as Howe argues massive budget deficits will compound worldwide, sending interest rates even higher than they are today, possibly leading to default in several countries. Understanding the general scope and timing of the downturn, crisis, and subsequent prosperity will help investors make more informed decisions.